Making the energy transition happen!

Eurogas scenario study with PRIMES

This study, based on the PRIMES model, envisions a future in which the EU’s agreed climate targets are met. It demonstrates that considerable progress can be made early by tapping the vast potential that natural gas offers by replacing coal, achieving even more ambitious emissions reductions by 2030.

The versatile role of gas - natural, decarbonised and renewable - enables a socially acceptable pathway to 2050, supporting higher shares of renewable energy, while limiting the cost increase for consumers.

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Eurogas scenario study with PRIMES

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Outcomes of the modelling

Scenario Overview

Key findings – Sectors

Gas has a versatile role in reducing emissions from sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: residential, industry and transport.

Key findings – Costs

A strong push for electrification would result in system limitations and high overall costs. A mix of decarbonisation options is a better approach. The Innovative Gas scenario allows to save €335bn in infrastructure investments between 2015 and 2050.

Total cost for decarbonisation (% of GDP)

Key findings – Energy mix

Innovative gas technologies, like power-to-gas, enable more renewables, within a comparable cost range.

Conventional Wisdom

Innovative Gas

Key findings – CO2 emissions

Delivering more ambitious emissions reduction targets in 2030 provides time for new options towards 2050.

More ambitious emissions reduction

Gas demand in the modelled scenarios

The versatile role of gas enables a socially acceptable low-carbon pathway to 2050, supporting a higher share of renewable energy, while limiting the cost increases for consumers.

Scenario approach: PRIMES model

Arguable assumptions by PRIMES model:

Policy Recommendations:

10 steps for policy makers to make the energy transition happen.